Watch Out For Bear Market Rallies

2022-7-22 13:00

Bear market rallies look to be playing out for both the S&P 500 Index and bitcoin. How high can the rally go? What do historical rallies look like?

The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

Bitcoin Bear Market Rallies

Bear market rallies, whether it’s equities or bitcoin, are a similar cyclical move that’s played out in markets time and time again. They can be convincing and volatile as investors become too far positioned in one direction.

We want to highlight the bear market rally case for bitcoin. As bitcoin has been closely following broader risk-on assets this cycle, it’s likely that continues as the market heads lower over the coming months.

We have bitcoin-specific bear market cycles. After the most recent rally, bitcoin is down 65% from the all-time high in November, 253 days in. 2013 and 2017 cycles found a bottom at 84.82% and 83.47% drawdowns, respectively, with both lasting close to around 400 days. Bitcoin’s latest rally is not out of the ordinary for the typical bear market rally move. Even a move to $30,000 is reasonable.

Bitcoin returns after major peaks

Typically, bear market cycles in the legacy world end after a 20% move up from the lows so having a cycle that printed new all-time highs seems like a stretch. Yet, looking at this way is compelling from a duration of 435 days and drawdown of 70%, which would fit the idea that all-time high drawdowns lessen over time.

The other way to look at the rallies is to see how high prices move off of new lows. Below we have the rally percentages from new lows across cycles. Using daily close prices and not absolute bottom wick prices, the 2013-2015 cycle saw rally gains of 84.12% at its highest while 2017-2018 saw 67.93%. In the current cycle we’ve seen a 35.54% rally move at its highest while the latest move, at the time of writing, is around 26%.

Bitcoin price rallies from new lows 2013-2015 Bitcoin price rallies from new lows 2017-2018  Bitcoin price rallies from new lows 2021-2022  Final Note

There’s a case to be made for the bitcoin bottom being in amid the wave of forced liquidations, capitulation-like behavior and nearly every mean-reversing cycle metric printing a good long-term opportunity to accumulate. Yet, our research and analysis leads us to these questions:

How far will equities fall? Is a 23.55% drawdown from all-time high in the S&P 500 Index the worst we see in this market? Are economic and liquidity conditions getting better to justify a reversal? Has there been a fundamental change or catalyst for bitcoin to suggest it won’t follow broader market moves?

It’s possible that bitcoin has already front-runned that move and will likely be the asset to bottom first, anyway. We’re convinced that the more likely case is that bitcoin will at least revisit previous lows and likely make a new one.

Similar to Notcoin - Blum - Airdrops In 2024

origin »

3X Short Bitcoin Token (BEAR) на Currencies.ru

$ 0 (+0.00%)
Объем 24H $0
Изменеия 24h: 0.00 %, 7d: 0.00 %
Cегодня L: $0 - H: $0
Капитализация $0 Rank 99999
Цена в час новости $ 0.1288 (-100%)

rallies out look market bear rally high

Источник: bitcoinmagazine.com

rallies out → Результатов: 54


Global Altcoin Breakout Could Usher Return of Alt Season Crypto Riches

The altcoin market has been ablaze all 2020 thus far, after the total crypto market and many individual altcoins broke out from downtrend resistance and went on massive rallies. Next, altcoins are preparing a global breakout of major, horizontal resistance, which if holds could lead to a return of alt season and richest beyond investor’s... The post appeared first on NewsBTC.

2020-2-4 20:00


Altcoin Market Explodes By Over 50% In 30 Days, Is Crypto Due for A Pullback?

This week, the total altcoin market cap broke out from local downtrend resistance, causing many individual crypto assets to go on monstrous rallies, some to as much as 400% gains. The breakout also caused the total crypto market cap sans Bitcoin to rise from $50 billion to over $77 billion, resulting in 50% growth within... The post appeared first on NewsBTC.

2020-1-18 18:00


Фото:

Crypto market incurs technical strength as altcoins begin turning parabolic

The crypto market’s firm uptrend has allowed multiple major altcoins to begin going parabolic, which to many investors is emblematic of the early stages of the massive bull run seen in late 2017. The recent series of rallies seen by both Bitcoin and other major altcoins has allowed the market to break out of a […] The post Crypto market incurs technical strength as altcoins begin turning parabolic appeared first on CryptoSlate.

2020-1-16 10:58


Фото:

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bullish Rejection Wipes Out Bitcoin’s Weekend Gains

Over the weekend, a strong rally was stifled by an even stronger rejection as the bitcoin market was shoved into a band of overhanging resistance. This band of resistance has been mentioned several times in our analyses over the last few weeks as it has proven impossible to overcome for the time being:Figure 1: BTC-USD, Daily Candles, Failed BreakoutThis run to the low $4,000s coincided with a breakout of a rather large symmetrical triangle consolidation shown above.

2019-2-26 02:42


2019 Dow Recovery ‘Nothing More Than a Bear Market Rally’

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and wider US stock market have made extraordinary recoveries in 2019, but several equities analysts warn that stocks remain firmly in a bear market. Stock Market Recoveries Following Sell-Offs Are Head Fakes A former adviser to the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, Danielle DiMartino Booth, wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed that the Dow’s push past 26,000 from its late December low is just a “head fake.

2019-2-26 01:17


дальше еще 5 новостей →

Партнеры Currencies.ru

Аналог Notcoin - Blum - Играй и зарабатывай Монеты



Реклама на Currencies.ru

Самое свежее на Currencies.ru

Binance to delist OMG, XEM and WAVES; token prices tumble

Binance announced the delisting of OMG Network, NEM and Waves coins on June 17, 2024. The exchange will end support for withdrawals on September 17. Binance has announced the delisting of four altcoins, news that has seen the said tokens nosedive amid market reaction.

Memeinator due to list on Uniswap and MEXC today

Key takeaways  The Memeinator presale has raised more than $7.7 million Memeinator is scheduled to list on both Uniswap and MEXC at 3pm UTC today A second staking pool also opened yesterday, offering up to 60% APY Memeinator will list on Uniswap and MEXC today With Memeinator wrapping up its presale after raising a staggering […] The post Memeinator due to list on Uniswap and MEXC today appeared first on CoinJournal.