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Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at $1,594, showing a 1.90% drop over the last 24 hours, as traders react to a mix of derivative market activity, staking trends, and whale movements.

The token has seen a 5.23% drop since hitting a high of $1,682 on April 14, 2025, signalling a short-term bearish sentiment.

The short-term bearish sentiment is driven by an unprecedented inflow of 77,000 ETH into derivative exchanges, a pattern that often foreshadows sharp price declines.

This surge in derivatives activity, according to an April macro and on-chain analysis by CryptoQuant, exceeds past peaks of 65,000 ETH, suggesting heightened volatility, with ETH now testing crucial support levels on the charts.

On the hourly timeframe, the price is nearing a vital support at $1,551, and slipping below this could push ETH down to the $1,500 region, amplifying the bearish mood.

Compounding this pressure, Ethereum’s staking balance has shrunk by 120,000 ETH in just five days, hinting that unstaked tokens might soon hit the market, increasing selling potential.

This staking reduction, valued at roughly $192 million, coincides with a jump in ETH’s exchange supply, which has risen by nearly 400,000 ETH since early April, briefly dragging the price under $1,500 last week.

Such a spike in exchange reserves often signals that more tokens are up for grabs, typically leading to downward price movement as supply outpaces demand.

However, amidst these challenges, large holders, better referred to as whales, controlling 10,000 to 100,000 ETH have started buying again, and have snapped up 320,000 ETH in the past 48 hours after offloading 570,000 ETH earlier this month.

This renewed whale accumulation might bolster ETH’s price, offering a buffer against the selling pressure from staking outflows and exchange supply growth, though a whale recently moved 20,000 ETH (worth about $32.4 million) to Kraken, stirring worries of a potential sell-off and clouding the short-term outlook further.

Technically, ETH is at a crossroads, probing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, where bulls must hold firm to avoid a deeper slide.

If the lower boundary holds, the price could surge above $1,600 and challenge the $1,688 resistance, marked by a descending trendline from late March, with a breakout possibly driving it to $1,800.

However, a drop below the boundary might see ETH fall to $1,522, and if that fails, the next stop could be $1,412, a level critical for maintaining bullish hopes.

Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator are trending below neutral, pointing to growing bearish momentum that could intensify if supports give way.

On the daily chart, ETH’s inability to hold above $1,689 has sparked a reversal, and a weak close today could see it drift toward $1,450–$1,500 soon.

In the midterm, caution prevails as the $1,537 support comes under pressure, and a breach here might spark a retreat to $1,300, rattling investor confidence.

Despite these near-term hurdles, Ethereum’s long-term prospects shine bright, fueled by optimism around institutional adoption and the rise of Ethereum-based ETFs.

Experts forecast ETH could climb to $6,000–$14,000 by 2025, propelled by its central role in decentralised finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), alongside growing corporate interest.

DeFi, with over $47 billion locked on Ethereum, is regaining liquidity post-liquidations, though $937 million in positions remain vulnerable if ETH dips to $917.99, tying the coin’s fate to the sector’s stability.

DeFi borrowers are playing it safe, setting liquidation prices around $917.99, with few positions at risk between $1,400 and $1,500, reflecting a guarded approach amid choppy markets.

Broader economic factors, like fears of US tariffs on China, are also dragging on ETH, as global trade concerns ripple through crypto markets.

These tariff worries, tied to past Trump-era proposals, have unsettled stakers, partly explaining the recent staking drop as investors hedge their bets.

Nevertheless, Ethereum’s foundational role in DeFi and NFTs, plus upgrades like Ethereum 2.0, keep it poised for long-term success, even as short-term turbulence persists.

As ETH dances around critical technical levels, market watchers must weigh these short-term jitters against the robust fundamentals pointing to a brighter future.

The post Ethereum price prediction: short-term volatility amid long-term bullish signals appeared first on Invezz

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