Bitcoin falls nearly 10 percent in a week, marking its worst weekly performance since March’s Black Thursday.
The losses followed the cryptocurrency’s recovery from below $4,000 to $10,000.
Profit-taking sentiment, miner capitulation, and uncertain macroeconomic outlooks further warn of deeper declines.
Bitcoin recovered mildly at the beginning of this week after closing the previous one in severe losses.
The benchmark cryptocurrency fell nearly 10 percent to close the seven-day timeframe at $8,715. The move downhill marked bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since March 2020. As of Monday morning, the cryptocurrency was trading about 0.66 percent higher, around $8,773.
The losses came as a part of a broader downside correction that began after bitcoin’s 161.25 percent recovery from its March lows below $4,000.
The cryptocurrency topped near $10,000, only to fall back over high profit-taking sentiment among traders. Additionally, certain fundamental and technical factors weighed on the prevailing, short-term bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin Capitulation
Charles Edwards, digital asset manager at Capriole Investments, said the Bitcoin’s sell-off is a result of miner capitulation, noting that the block validators are selling their bitcoin rewards after the third “halving.”
“This capitulation is almost identical to the 2012 and 2016 halving capitulations (all within 21 days of the halving),” he added, explaining that bitcoin fell 1.8 percent and 13.8 percent after its last two halving events in 2012 and 2016, respectively.
Bitcoin capitulation detected on Hash Ribbons readings | Source: TradingView.com
Mr. Edwards noted that capitulation is bullish for Bitcoin while basing his analysis on the 2012 and 2016 fractals. The analyst argued that halvings increase the cost of mining one bitcoin unit, which, in turn, increases its retail price.
“Production cost is about to double to $14,000 — 70 % above the current price,” he added.
Dissenting Factors
Mr. Edwards’ bullish stance surfaced amidst a gloomy macroeconomic outlook.
Bitcoin, more or less, tailed falls and recoveries of the global stock market since March. So it appears, investors dumped their crypto holdings to cover their losses elsewhere. The strategy created an uncanny correlation between the cryptocurrency and traditional risk-on assets.
It is further evident in Bitcoin’s inability to close above a long-term technical resistance level, defined by a Descending Trendline in the chart below. The cryptocurrency tested the blacked ceiling multiple times during its recovery but attracted no new buyer at the top near $10,000.
That caused a steep downside correction.
BTCUSD upsides capped by the black Descending Trendline | Source: TradingView.com, Coinbase
The latest pullback validated a strong bearish presence near the blacked trendline. It also showed that investors are unwilling to enter the bitcoin market at higher highs.
Meanwhile, traders are watching whether or not the cryptocurrency could attract buyers near its 50-weekly moving average support (blued wave).
Overall, investors are cautious about their bets in volatile markets such as Bitcoin, and even stocks. If that leads to cryptocurrency breaking bearish below 50-WMA, then it risks steeper declines towards $6,800 or below (the red bar). origin »
Bitcoin prices plummeted on Thursday as global geopolitical tensions escalated to unprecedented levels. On Thursday, there was no agreement reached to end the war during the second round of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials.
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Bitcoin has finally jumped $8,000 level, fully recovering from the losses occurred on Black Thursday. On Bitstamp, BTC/USD went as far as $8,190 and is currently looking poised to move further up. However, Ethereum is outperforming bitcoin yet again with 6.
Bitcoin is ticking up once again as the chatter about the upcoming halving skyrockets across social media platforms and news outlets. Social metrics about Bitcoin’s halving explode Bitcoin is back above $8,000 fully erasing all the losses incurred during Black Thursday.
Bitcoin volumes surged dramatically after Black Thursday, a March 12 event that saw the price crashing by more than 50 percent. The average volume recorded ahead of Bitcoin’s mining reward halving came out higher than pre-Black Thursday levels.
In less than two weeks, the Bitcoin block reward halving will take place and BTC miners will receive half the reward going forward after May 12. Since ‘Black Thursday’ (March 12), bitcoin prices have gained 103% since then rising from $3,800 to $7,750 per coin.
The crypto market is back to enjoying greens, having recovered much of the losses recorded on Black Thursday. In 2020, the second-largest network is outperforming Bitcoin. Trading above $7,500 Bitcoin is up about 3% YTD while Ether is recording returns of over 48% trading at $193.
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With the latest gains, the price of bitcoin has turned green on a year-to-date basis. Ahead of the third bitcoin halving which is just 17 days away, the price of the leading digital asset has jumped to six weeks high at $7,500 just before the crash on Black Thursday.
Bitcoin hit $7,600 on Thursday, its highest level yet since crashing in early March. The cryptocurrency climbed more than 10% during the last 24 hours spurred by the return of leveraged money. Bitcoin cash (BCH), ethereum (ETH), and ripple (XRP) all rose above 4% to $239, $189, and $0.
Bitcoin has done extremely well over the past 24 hours. After falling as low as $6,800 on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency mounted a strong comeback on Thursday morning, rallying from $7,050 to $7,800 in an explosive fashion to mark an over 10% gain.
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The crypto market crash of March 12th, 2020 is painfully etched into the memories of traders and HODLers alike. On this day, known now as cryptos ‘Black Thursday’, the price of Bitcoin on BitMEX slid from US$7939 to US$4346, a decrease of ~45%.
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