Quick Take The first quarter of the year witnessed the U.S. GDP outperforming expectations by landing at a 2.0% growth rate, surpassing the anticipated forecast of 1.4%. The impressive performance runs in tandem with the recent U.S. initial jobless claims data, which reported 239,000 compared to the projected 265,000. These core economic indicators have influenced the U.S. bond market, instigating a rise in yields across the yield curve. As a reaction to these data points and shifting bond yields, market sentiment is increasingly skewed toward the anticipation of tighter monetary policy. Specifically, market participants are now pricing in an 82% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Should this expectation come to fruition, it would bring the federal funds rate to a range of 5.25-5.50%, reflecting the central bank’s response to stronger economic growth and employment data. Meeting Probabilities: (Source: CME)

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