Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to jobs data

2023-5-6 16:00

Quick Take The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969. Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000. The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance. This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50 Fed funds: (Source: CME) Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)

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market rate data 25bps chance currently 185

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