Silver (XAG/USD) price trades at $77.31 on April 8, forming a cup pattern on the 12-hour chart with a 32% breakout projection that puts triple digits within range.

The setup arrives as the US-Iran ceasefire crashed Brent crude 15%, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 1.63% from its April 6 high. A weaker dollar traditionally lifts the silver price because the metal becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. Whether this macro tailwind translates into a confirmed breakout depends on how the handle forms and whether the futures market agrees.

Silver price has been forming a cup pattern on the 12-hour chart since mid-March. The rounded bottom took shape through the late-March correction, and the recent bounce has now completed the supposed cup. All that remains is the handle, and a small pullback from the recent $77.73 peak hints at that formation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring the speed of price changes, raises a handle case. Between March 9 and April 7, the price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high. This is a hidden bearish divergence, suggesting that the current pullback from the neckline may continue.

A deeper handle would not invalidate the cup. Handles are expected to pull back before breaking higher. The question is how deep it goes and whether the broader macro backdrop gives silver enough support to keep the handle shallow.

The spread between front-month and second-month silver futures (SIL1! minus SIL2!) sits at -0.55, a condition called contango, where silver futures prices trade higher than near-term prices. This means buyers are not scrambling for immediate delivery.

For context, this spread peaked at 7.875 in early February and hit 6.515 in early March, both periods when the silver price was surging and physical demand was tight. The collapse from those highs to negative territory shows that the urgency has evaporated.

Contango does not kill a rally, but it does suggest the current move is being driven by macro positioning rather than physical supply stress. For the cup pattern to produce a sustained breakout, the spread would need to tighten back toward zero or flip positive, signaling that real demand is catching up with the price.

The macro positioning, however, is shifting fast. The reason sits in the dollar and in the options markets.

The ceasefire triggered an immediate repricing across commodities. Brent crude dropped 15% as the US-Iran de-escalation removed the war premium from oil. When oil falls, it reduces the petrodollar effect, where oil-importing nations need to buy dollars to pay for crude. Less dollar demand means a weaker dollar in the short-term.

The DXY has dropped 1.63% from its April 6 high and now sits at 98.69, directly on the 0.382 technical support level. If this level breaks, the next stops are 98.09 and 97.50. Every leg lower in the dollar historically provides a tailwind for silver price because the metal becomes relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies.

The options market confirms the shift. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) put-call ratio, which compares bearish put options to bullish call options, dropped from 0.67 on April 6 to 0.47 on April 7. The open interest ratio also edged lower from 0.60 to 0.59. Both readings sit well below 1.0, meaning call buyers are dominating put buyers. The drop between April 6 and 7 suggests that bearish bets are being unwound as the ceasefire changes the macro picture.

With the dollar weakening, oil falling, and options positioning turning bullish, the Silver price chart becomes the final decider.

Silver trades at $77.31. The cup’s neckline sits between $77.29 and $77.73. A 12-hour close above $77.73 would confirm the cup breakout.

Above the neckline, $79.12 at the 0.618 level is the first real confirmation zone. A close above $79.12 would validate the breakout and shift the target higher. The $85.07 becomes the first major target. If momentum carries through, the 1.618 extension at $94.69 and the full 32% measured move projection at $102.29 (the $100+ zone) come into play.

For the $100 target to become realistic, two conditions need to hold simultaneously. The dollar must continue weakening below 98.69, and the futures contango must tighten as physical demand returns. Without both, the rally risks stalling at the $85 zone.

Cup patterns that form during macro regime shifts carry a nuance. If the macro trigger fades, such as the ceasefire collapsing or the dollar rebounding, the cup can convert into a failed pattern rather than a confirmed breakout. The RSI divergence already hints at that risk.

On the downside, $75.45 at the 0.382 level is the first handle support. A deeper handle could test $73.18. $69.51 is the critical floor and a break below would weaken the pattern significantly. A drop below $60.88 invalidates it entirely.

At present, $77.73 separates a confirmed cup breakout with a path toward $85.07 and eventually $100 from a handle deepening toward $73.18 and the $69.51 floor.

The post Can Silver Price Ride the Ceasefire Wave Past $100? A Falling Dollar Opens the Door appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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