2025-3-14 21:05 |
Bitcoin traded slightly weaker on Wednesday, hovering around $81,867 at press time, up 0.42% in the past 24 hours. This stabilization follows a volatile week where Bitcoin hit a four-month low of approximately $76,600 on March 11 before rebounding above $83,000.
Notably, the recent pullback has been largely influenced by macroeconomic factors, including concerns over tariffs and economic slowdowns, leading investors to move away from riskier assets. Market structure analysis supports this narrative, with persistent selling pressure, particularly from short-term holders, as noted by Glassnode analysts.
“Since prices dropped below $95K, the 196-hour moving average of STH-SOPR has remained below 1, suggesting that most short-term investors are realizing losses,” they reported.
Further data from Coinglass indicates that Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score has remained near 0.1 since early January, while the CBD Heatmap reveals a diminishing “buy-the-dip” response. This points to Bitcoin entering a post-all-time-high distribution phase, marked by declining aggregate demand and continued selling from investors who bought at higher prices.
Despite the market struggles, whales have been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin. CryptoQuant analyst Caueconomy highlighted that large investors have acquired over 65,000 BTC in the past month, excluding purchases by miners and exchanges.
“Whales accumulated more than 65,000 BTC in the last month,” Caueconomy noted Tuesday. “If this pattern continues for a few more weeks, it could indicate sustained buying pressure, similar to what we saw between November and December.”
Moreover, several other on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin could be setting up for a recovery. CryptoQuant analysts point to historical patterns where Bitcoin’s price falling below the average cost basis of short-term holders has often signaled prime buying opportunities during bull markets.
“Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the Average Cost Basis of Short-Term Holders. In a bull market, this serves as a strong buy-the-dip indicator,” analyst Maartun observed.
Meanwhile, Binance whale activity suggests a potential decline in selling pressure, according to analyst Darkfrost. The Bitcoin exchange whale ratio, a measure of top inflows relative to total inflows, is decreasing, a trend that has historically signaled bullish movements.
“Elevated values indicate higher selling pressure, while a declining ratio suggests whales are easing off selling. Historically, this has preceded bullish trends,” Darkfrost noted on Wednesday.
Despite these positive indicators, analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory. Some predict a further dip before a stronger rally. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to bottom around $70,000, noting that a 36% correction from the $110,000 all-time high would be “normal for a bull market.”
“Looks like $BTC will retest $78K. If it fails, $75K is next in the crosshairs. There are a lot of options open interest between $70K-$75K—if we enter that range, it will be violent,” Hayes tweeted on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, veteran trader Peter Brandt also pointed to bearish technical patterns, identifying a double top formation around $108,000. According to Brandt, Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim above the $92,000 neckline confirms a downside target near $75,000, calculated based on the pattern’s height subtracted from its neckline.
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