2025-12-17 21:32 |
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, beating forecasts but revealing deeper cracks in the labor market that sent Bitcoin briefly slipping below the mid-$86,000 area.
While the headline jobs number was better than the worst-case fears, the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.6% triggered a conflicting wave of risk appetite.
The soft numbers caused crypto traders to hesitate as they parsed the implications for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Payrolls surprise and the immediate crypto reactionThe crypto market’s reaction to the November jobs report was a textbook case of “bad news is good news.”
Initially, the headline beat of over 64,000 jobs (vs. 45,000 expected) caused a mild “good news is bad news” flinch, suggesting the economy wasn’t collapsing fast enough to guarantee emergency-level stimulus.
However, the details, specifically the rise in unemployment to 4.6% and a massive downward revision to October’s data (showing a net loss of 105,000 jobs), painted a much softer picture.
Bitcoin responded with immediate volatility, dropping from intraday highs around $87,000 to tap liquidity in the $85,200–$85,600 zone.
This dip wasn’t a panic sell but a mechanical re-pricing.
As Treasury yields fell on the soft data, the US dollar weakened, which typically buoys crypto.
However, the “recession risk” signal embedded in a 4.6% unemployment rate initially spooked risk assets, causing a temporary correlation breakdown where Bitcoin drifted lower even as bonds rallied.
“We saw a flush of leverage in the first 15 minutes post-print,” noted a trading desk strategist.
The market is trying to decide if 4.6% unemployment means ‘buy the Fed put’ or ‘sell the recession.’
Bitcoin price: What traders should watch nextFor Bitcoin to reclaim momentum, it needs to decouple from recession fears and re-align with the “liquidity” trade.
Traders should monitor three specific signals in the next 48 hours:
The $85,000 support floor: This level is critical. If “recession anxiety” deepens and traditional equities sell off, Bitcoin could revisit the $80,500 lows set in late November. ETF flows as a confidence check: Recent sessions have seen volatile flows, with BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) seeing reversals from outflows to inflows. Yield curve & DXY: If the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide below 100 on the back of this report, Bitcoin should theoretically bid back toward $88,000.If Bitcoin holds $87,000 through the US close, expect a drift higher toward $88,500 as Asian markets price in the “dovish Fed” reality. A break below $84,800 opens the door to sub-$82k.
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