2020-4-29 12:40 |
There is no doubt Bitcoin has been adversely affected by the outbreak of COVID-19. Crypto assets, like many other mainstream asset classes, experienced a large downturn in the middle of March. It was a move in global markets based on fears that the coronavirus lockdowns could cause a widespread economic contraction, maybe even a full-blown recession. Considering the crash that transpired in March, many have rushed to the conclusion that a prolonged lockdown would only harm Bitcoin. Yet according to Kelvin Koh — a former Goldman Sachs partner and current partner at The Spartan Group — the ongoing crisis will only increase the odds that BTC experiences “another exponential price spike.” This Crisis “Dramatically Increases” the Odds of a Bitcoin Bull Run Businesses based on offering digital goods and services have emerged as winners amid the ongoing outbreak. As airlines, restaurants, and a myriad of other industries have sunk, technology companies have emerged as decisive winners. A perfect case in point to this is Amazon, whose stock has just established a new all-time high amid what the International Monetary Fund considers to be the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Below is a chart depicting this performance. The key point of the chart is that the $2,400 price point Amazon just tapped, a whole 44% from the lows, is a new all-time high. Chart from TradingView.com The outperformance of digital businesses amid the crisis, Kelvin Koh wrote in a recent Twitter thread, is a factor that is only going to improve the prospects of Bitcoin and crypto-based technologies moving forward. “One thing was made clear during the pandemic. Digital businesses were clear winners in this crisis and a world scarred by it will accelerate towards digitization, which bodes well for crypto longer term,” the analyst wrote on the subject. This is only one such trend catalyzed by the coronavirus crisis that will benefit Bitcoin, according to the investor. To respond to the underperformance of most industries like airlines and agriculture, governments have been forced to inject trillions of dollars worth of stimulus into the economy. It’s a move that has been deemed necessary by investors, but one that Koh remarked will act as a boon for the Bitcoin market. “Some of the trillions of dollars of stimulus from central banks will inevitably flow into crypto assets,” he explained. This confluence of the two fundamental factors led Koh to the following conclusion: the crisis has “dramatically increased the odds” that Bitcoin undergoes “another exponential price spike” in a way that causes the entire crypto market to rally. Don’t Get Left Behind The trends of global digitization and the debasement of fiat money are longer-term narratives for Bitcoin, to be sure, but Koh made it clear that investors need to keep their heads on a swivel. Concluding his thread, the former institutional investor warned that once the crypto market starts to move, it will move quickly. This relates to the concept of reflexivity in financial markets, which states that markets naturally trend in one direction or the other due to investor psychology. As he explained: “The steady cash inflow into crypto exchanges and growing cash balances is the clearest signal of this bullish appetite. It’s hard to time markets perfectly, especially for crypto. When crypto prices move, they move quickly. Don’t get left behind.” Photo by Daniel Mayovskiy on Unsplash
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