XRP has been forming a red bearish candle since the beginning of February, which is a result of a price crash that took place at the start of the month. Although THE ALTCOIN has since recovered slightly, it has yet to return to its January open. Nonetheless, the majority of crypto investors remain bullish on the long-term prospects for XRP, with analysts doubling down on optimistic price targets ranging from $2 to $5.

However, a crypto analyst on the TradingView platform has presented a compelling bearish case for XRP, warning that the asset is nearing the end of a crucial 12-year cycle, which could trigger a severe correction down to $0.1.

According to the analyst, XRP has almost completed a 12-year cycle, and the conclusion of this phase is going to be a very intense correction of the XRP price. While acknowledging that XRP could still reach a slightly higher high before the full decline begins, the analyst believes that the probability of significant further upside is low and warns that a continued correction might occur over the coming months.

The warning is centered around technical indicators and technical patterns, particularly a long-term triangle pattern. This long-term triangle pattern persisted for five years between XRP’s all-time high of $3.40 in 2018 up until 2024, before breaking out into a final fifth wave. This final fifth wave has allegedly peaked at $3.40 in January 2025, and the next move from here is an extended move downwards.

The analysis also references the Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator by Skyrexio, which confirmed the conclusion of the 12-year cycle. Now, the proposed target for the correction is set around $0.1, based on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.43, meaning that a correction to $0.1 would represent a 95% decline from its current level. Such a drop would not only erase nearly all of XRP’s gains since 2017 but would also mark one of the most devastating collapses in its history. Interestingly, this projected loss in XRP market cap would be even greater than the one witnessed during the years it was suppressed by the weight of the SEC lawsuit against its parent company Ripple. 

This bearish prediction contrasts the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment currently surrounding XRP. Many analysts and investors expect extended price growth in anticipation of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity under the new Trump administration. One analyst even recently predicted that the XRP price is about to make an all-time high run to $5. Another analyst, Javon Marks, noted that XRP is well on track to reach over $100 in the coming years.

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