Quick Take

In simple terms, the “realized price” refers to the total cost basis of all Bitcoin in existence, while the “Mayer Multiple” (MM) is a tool that quantifies the discrepancy between Bitcoin’s current price and its 200-day moving average. This variance can be used to pinpoint historical trends that might foretell the emergence of a speculative bubble in Bitcoin, as outlined by Glassnode.

Historical data shows that the Mayer Multiple often dips below the realized price during bear market cycles. This downward trend is an indication of the intensifying severity of the bear market.

On the other hand, the Mayer Multiple typically surges above the realized price during a market cycle shift, hinting at the commencement of a new cycle. A recent example of this pattern was seen on June 12th, when the Mayer Multiple surpassed the realized price. Currently, the Mayer Multiple is valued at $14,951, which is slightly above the realized price of $14,251.

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