The crypto market has come under heavy selling pressure amid a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment. According to a CryptoQuant report, the latest downturn unfolded alongside a broader cross-asset sell-off, where traditional safe havens and risk assets were both hit.

Gold posted a sudden correction of roughly 8%, while silver dropped close to 12%. Bitcoin proved relatively more resilient, declining by around 9%, but it was not insulated from the wider liquidation wave. US equities also weakened, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq participating in the move lower, reinforcing the idea of a synchronized risk-off event rather than an isolated crypto-specific shock.

The initial trigger came from announcements linked to Microsoft, particularly around its artificial intelligence investments. The news drove Microsoft shares down by more than 12%, setting off a domino effect across global markets as investors rapidly reduced exposure to crowded growth and technology trades. That repricing quickly spilled over into crypto derivatives.

Despite Bitcoin’s comparatively modest price decline, the leverage embedded in the market amplified the impact. Nearly $300 million in long positions were liquidated within a few hours. Hyperliquid absorbed the largest share, with $87.1 million in longs wiped out, while Binance recorded roughly $30 million. The episode highlights how fragile positioning and elevated leverage can transform moderate price moves into significant liquidation events across the crypto market.

Despite the recent drawdowns, leverage remains a defining feature of the current crypto market structure. According to top analyst Darkfost, many investors continue to pursue market exposure through high leverage, creating conditions where relatively small price moves can trigger sharp bursts of volatility.

These moves are frequently amplified by liquidation cascades, as forced position closures accelerate downside momentum. Crucially, this behavior persists even after the October 10 event, which previously led to a significant destruction of liquidity and capital across the market.

The persistence of this risk appetite is clearly visible in derivatives data. A useful way to isolate true positioning trends is to examine open interest expressed in BTC terms rather than notional value. By doing so, the distortion caused by price fluctuations is removed, offering a clearer picture of how much exposure traders are actually carrying. This approach highlights whether leverage is genuinely being rebuilt or merely appears higher due to price effects.

Viewed through this lens, open interest on Binance stands at approximately 123,500 BTC. This already exceeds the level recorded just before the October 10 sell-off, when open interest had fallen to around 93,600 BTC. The increase of roughly 31% since that low indicates that risk appetite has gradually returned. Rather than a crypto market operating defensively, current positioning suggests that leverage is once again accumulating, leaving prices vulnerable to further volatility if sentiment shifts abruptly.

Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect a fragile and corrective market structure. After failing to reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 region, BTC has extended its pullback and is now trading near the $82,800 area, marking a clear breakdown from the recent consolidation range. The move lower is occurring below the short- and medium-term moving averages, with price firmly capped by the declining 50-day and 100-day averages, reinforcing the loss of upside momentum.

The 200-day moving average remains well above current levels, highlighting the broader deterioration in trend strength since the October peak. Structurally, Bitcoin has transitioned from higher highs to a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, signaling that sellers continue to control rallies rather than buyers defending breakouts. Volume spikes during sell-offs, particularly in November and December, suggest distribution rather than healthy rotation.

The $82,000–$85,000 zone now stands out as a critical support area. A sustained hold could allow for short-term stabilization or range formation, but a decisive breakdown would expose deeper downside toward the $78,000–$80,000 region, where previous demand emerged. On the upside, any recovery attempt is likely to face immediate resistance near $88,000–$90,000, followed by stronger supply closer to $95,000.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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