Ethereum (ETH) is facing a decisive phase as major whales reduce their holdings while trading activity on spot markets rises.

The cryptocurrency has managed to stay above key support levels, but conflicting signals from on-chain flows, leveraged trading, and technical charts are leaving traders split on its next move.

At press time, Ethereum traded at $4,483, up nearly 3% on Sunday.

Notably, despite recent turbulence, ETH remains 78% higher year-over-year, underscoring the strength of its broader recovery.

In the past two weeks, Ethereum whales offloaded more than 430,000 ETH, valued at roughly $1.8 billion.

This selling pressure drove whale balances to their lowest in weeks and raised concerns about market resilience.

Historically, such exits have often preceded price corrections as liquidity thins and selling pressure grows.

At the same time, not all large players are heading for the exit.

A separate report from LookonChain shows that a high-profile whale recently swapped 4,000 BTC, worth around $4.35 billion, for 96,859 ETH within 12 hours.

That whale now holds 837,429 ETH valued at nearly $3.85 billion, underscoring the mixed stance among major holders, with some trimming positions and others making fresh, aggressive bets on Ethereum.

While whale flows paint a divided picture, activity in Ethereum’s spot markets has surged.

CryptoQuant’s Spot Volume Bubble Map shows that trading activity has entered a “heating phase,” with large transactions clustering across exchanges.

Higher spot volume often signals rising volatility, as it reflects an intensified battle between buyers and sellers.

Increased activity can improve liquidity, but it also sharpens short-term swings.

The crucial question is whether the surge is driven by accumulation from retail and smaller investors, or whether it represents further distribution by whales seeking to offload into strength.

Order flow data highlights a persistent sell-side dominance.

In 90 days, aggressive sellers outweighed market buy demand, reinforcing bearish momentum from whale exits.

Despite this, liquidation data showed that short sellers remain vulnerable.

Over $28.59 million in short positions were liquidated recently, compared to $6.12 million in longs, as ETH steadied around $4,481.

This imbalance illustrates how bearish traders have been repeatedly caught out during sharp moves, suggesting that even in a weak environment, sudden rebounds remain a real possibility.

However, repeated liquidations on both sides underline how sensitive the market has become to price swings.

Ethereum’s price is currently holding above $4,200 support while consolidating toward resistance at $4,800.

Analysts highlight the $4,287 “Powell Candle” as a critical support line that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure.

A loss of this level could expose Ethereum to declines toward $3,975.

On the flip side, a break above $4,800 would signal bullish continuation and open a path toward $5,200–$5,500.

Hidden bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds weight to this view, suggesting that momentum may favour a rebound if buyers defend key levels.

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