2023-11-28 00:00 |
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whale exchange inflow activity has been increasing recently, a sign that may not be positive for the price.
Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Been Going Up RecentlyAs an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post pointed out, the exchange whale ratio has recently observed an uptrend. The “exchange whale ratio” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the sum of the top 10 transfers to exchanges and the total exchange inflow.
The ten largest deposits to exchanges generally come from whale entities, so this ratio’s value can tell us about how the inflow activity of these humongous investors compares against that of the entire market.
When this metric is high, the whales comprise a significant part of the total exchange inflows. Since one of the main reasons why these holders might transfer their coins to these platforms is for selling purposes, this kind of trend can be a sign that the whales are potentially dumping.
Naturally, such selling can be bearish for the asset’s price. On the other hand, low values imply these large investors are only making up for a healthy portion of the exchange inflows, which could lead towards a neutral or bullish outcome for the coin.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) Bitcoin exchange whale ratio over the past few years:
As is visible in the above graph, the quant has highlighted the pattern that the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has followed during this period. In the leadup to the 2021 bull run, the indicator appeared to have declined, suggesting that these investors were focused on accumulation.
This accumulation continued until the 2021 bull market reached its first peak phase, where the ratio reversed its direction and started climbing up instead, implying that the whales ramped up their selling pressure.
This selloff continued until the 2022 bear market was well underway, and the 3AC crash had already happened. After this, the metric once again switched its trend and saw a drawdown.
The drawdown ended a few months ago, and since then, the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has been climbing again, meaning that these large investors have potentially been increasing their selling pressure.
The indicator isn’t yet at the levels that the major tops in the cryptocurrency have formed during the past, but the rise could still be a cause for concern. “If this pattern continues, we should expect a rather significant market downturn,” suggests the analyst.
BTC PriceAt the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $36,800, down 2% in the last week.
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