2024-4-15 18:00 |
Bitcoin has found a rebound back above the $66,000 mark following a drop towards the on-chain cost basis of the short-term holder whales.
Bitcoin Drawdown Had Nearly Put Short-Term Whales Under PressureAs pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC’s price had neared the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales during the recent drop, but had still managed to remain above the level.
The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis (that is, the acquisition price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market.
When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this level, it means that the investors as a whole are in a state of unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, it being under implies the overall market is carrying losses.
In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire Bitcoin market isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holder (STH) whales.
The STHs refer to the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, while the whales are categorized as entities holding greater than 1,000 BTC. As such, the STH whales would refer to the large investors who bought during the last five months.
Naturally, the Realized Price of this group would indicate the average whale buying price over the past five months (and this price would obviously have to be one the cryptocurrency had traded at on some occasion inside this timeframe).
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STH whales over the last decade:
From the graph, it’s visible that the Realized Price of the STH whales has rapidly climbed alongside the sharp rally Bitcoin has gone through this year. This makes sense, as the STHs represent the new hands coming into the market, who would have to buy at higher prices as the asset’s surge would continue.
Not only that, but the STHs who age past the 155 days mark (that is, those who bought at the relatively low prices) exit out of the cohort, thus raising the average even further.
The group that these matured investors advance to is known as the long-term holder (LTH) cohort. In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for the Realized Price of the LTH whales as well.
It would appear that these veteran whales have their cost basis at just $21,500, meaning that these investors would be getting some big rewards for their patience. In contrast, the STH whales have their Realized Price at $60,700.
During Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, the asset had come close to retesting this mark. Such retests have historically lead to reactions in the market and during bull runs, this reaction has often appeared in the form of buying. This may be why the cryptocurrency found its rebound near the $60,700 level.
BTC PriceWith its latest rebound, Bitcoin has so far managed to recover back towards the $66,500 level.
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