2025-7-12 01:32 |
Hougan first rolled out the target in Bitwise’s “10 Crypto Predictions for 2025” back in December 2024 and has doubled down on it at every microphone since, most recently at Consensus 2025. His logic is brutal in its simplicity: basic supply-and-demand math says there just won’t be enough coins to satisfy the institutional money stampeding in.
“Miners will crank out only 165,000 BTC this year. Public companies and ETFs have already swallowed more than that,” Hougan told Cointelegraph. “Once sellers at $100 k are exhausted, the next stop is $200 k.”
Matt on CNBC today talking up his Bitcoin price target of $200,000
Where We Stand Mid-2025 ETF fire-hose still on: Spot-bitcoin ETFs have sucked in a record $15 billion-plus YTD after shattering the 2024 launch-year record of $35 billion. Some weeks they’re pulling $2 billion while everything else bleeds.
BlackRock effect: IBIT alone vacuumed up $6.3 billion in May, lifting its AUM north of $70 billion.
Macro tailwinds: Trump’s public tantrum that Fed rates are “300 bps too high” has traders salivating over cheap money and risk-asset rocket fuel. Policy thaw: Next week’s “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill could finally hand the industry the regulatory clarity Wall Street claims it needs.
Bitcoin is looking strong and ready for price discovery, Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index
The 5-Point Checklist to $200 k Sustain ETF Inflows above New Supply. Hougan’s math works if ETFs keep hoovering >3,200 BTC a week—about triple what miners now issue post-halving. Anything less and supply overhang creeps back in.Wirehouse On-Ramps. Merrill, Morgan and Wells have only just green-lit spot-BTC funds. Full rollout could unlock $30-$40 trillion in advised assets. (Hougan calls that “the second wave.”) Corporate Treasury FOMO 2.0. Strategy already holds 568,000 BTC, effectively “synthetically halving” supply, and smaller S&P names are tip-toeing in. Washington’s Strategic Reserve. Talk of a U.S. bitcoin reserve is no longer sci-fi; the administration is studying it. A single 10 % allocation of the current gold stockpile value would mean a six-figure physical purchase order. Macro Liquidity Spigot. One outsized Fed rate cut—or even the hint of it—could shove real yields back below zero and send every macro fund herding into “digital gold.”
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is soaring to new levels in 2025, Source: Bitwise
What Could Go Wrong Regulatory rug-pull. A hostile amendment during “Crypto Week” or a Treasury clamp-down on dollar-denominated stablecoin rails would spook the wirehouses just when they’re warming up.ETF exhaustion. If flows stall below 1 k BTC per week—say, because hedge-fund basis trades evaporate—Hougan’s supply crunch thesis breaks.
Macro shock. A surprise recession could send institutions back to cash and Treasuries, freezing the bid at precisely the wrong moment.
The original target from Bitwise Crypto Predictions 2025
Hougan’s $200,000 Bitcoin price prediction target is audacious, but it isn’t hopium. The plumbing is already half-built: ETFs, corporate treasuries, talk of a national reserve, and a macro backdrop that keeps rewarding anything scarce and unprintable. Tick these five boxes and $200 k stops being a moon shot and starts looking like base camp. Miss a couple and we might spend Christmas telling ghost stories around $120k. If you’ve been asking if now is the time to buy Bitcoin, this bull run is just getting started. Buy Bitcoin and crypto assets to ride the bull market, it won’t last forever so manage your risk.
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