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Today has been an especially volatile day, in an already volatile week. The price of Bitcoin has surged beyond $63,000. While still not a new all-time-high, it is the highest BTC price since the top of the last bull market in November 2021. The total crypto market capitalization has reclaimed the $2 trillion level for the first time since April 2022 as market sentiment turns hugely bullish and the inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to exceed all expectations.

The Bitcoin price has surged around 20% in the last week. Source: Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index

For some context, it took eight long years for Bitcoin to go from $0 to $5k. Over the last two days, Bitcoin has twice increased by $5k in a 12-hour window. Today, Bitcoin dropped from $63,000 to $59,000 in a one-hour period.

This week’s rally means that Bitcoin has achieved a YTD performance of 44% in just two months. The rally began two days ago when Bitcoin was $51,000. Huge inflows into U.S. spot ETFs saw the funds add 10,000 Bitcoin on Monday, and 12,000 on Tuesday. This far exceeds the daily 900 BTC that are produced by the network as mining rewards, a number that will be halved to 450 in April at the next Bitcoin Halving. This almost guarantees a BTC supply shock given current demand.

Wednesday was an even bigger day, with Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeting that “We’re only halfway through the trading day and the New Nine Bitcoin ETFs have already broken their all-time daily volume record w/ $2.6b. We have 4 BTC ETFs in the Top 20 ETFs. BlackRock’s $IBIT is #4 overall, it’s going to trade more today than in its first two weeks combined. This is officially a craze.”

Towards the end of the day, records were broken further, and Balchunas tweeted again, stating, “The New Nine doubled their volume record (set Monday) with just about $6b traded. $IBIT led with $3.3b of it, Fidelity did $1.4b (both double their previous records). The total number of trades was double too, over half a million individual trades between them.” 

This week’s surge means the total crypto market capitalization has reclaimed the $2 trillion level for the first time since April 2022, while Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is now $1.2 trillion, closing in fast on Silver’s total market capitalization of $1.26 trillion.

Bitcoin bulls are now focused on the all-time high of $69,040 set on Nov. 10, 2021. The favorable market sentiment, institutional demand, and relentless ETF inflows mean that Bitcoin could be on track to pass the previous all-time high well before the halving in April, a price pattern that has never been seen before.

In a strong sign that retail participants have begun to return to the market, on Wednesday, Coinbase went down. The company issued a notice stating “We are aware that some users may see a zero balance across their Coinbase accounts & may experience errors in buying or selling. We are dealing with a LARGE surge of traffic – apologies for any issues you encounter. Our team is investigating this & will provide an update shortly. Your assets are safe.”

About three hours after Coinbase started experiencing difficulties, CEO Brian Armstrong, tweeted, “Apps are now recovering. We had modeled a ~10x surge in traffic and load-tested it. This exceeded that number. It’s expensive to keep services over-provisioned, but we’ll need to keep working on auto-scaling solutions, and killing any remaining bottlenecks. Thank you for bearing with us.”

In previous bull markets, the Coinbase app has made it to the number 1 spot in the Apple App Store at the peak of the market, a good indicator of a potential top. Coinbase is currently ranked at 252, however, this is up from 277 at the start of the week.

The Canadian subsidiary of Fidelity’s new all-in-one ETF page recommends 1-3% allocations for crypto across its four flagship products. Fidelity promotes its products as a way to “get a complete portfolio in one ETF.” That crypto is included as a 1% allocation in Fidelity’s “all-in-one conservative fund,” suggests the asset manager considers at least some digital assets as de-risked. Fidelity recommends a 3% crypto allocation on its Growth and Equity portfolios.

With Bitcoin performing strongly, and nearing a break of its all-time-high, Bitcoin believers are beginning to take victory laps. Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador tweeted, “When Bitcoin’s market price was low, they wrote thousands of articles about our supposed losses. Now that Bitcoin’s market price is way up, if we were to sell, we would make a profit of over 40% (just from the market purchases), and our main source of BTC is now our citizenship program. We won’t sell, of course; at the end 1 BTC = 1 BTC (this was true when the market price was low and it’s true now); but it’s very telling that the authors of those hit pieces are totally silent now. Remember this, next time they spill lies again about El Salvador.”

Respected technical analyst Peter Brandt has turned super bullish, writing on Twitter, that, “With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the Bitcoin target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000.”

The Gold price has been static for months

Bitcoin now appears more correlated with the share market than other ‘safe haven’ assets like gold, which has not followed the Bitcoin price surge and is currently at $2047 – almost unchanged on its December 1st price of $2075.

The price surge means Bitcoin is already hitting new all-time highs in many fiat currencies, including third-world and developing currencies, the Argentine Peso, the Turkish lira, and now the Japanese Yen. Bitcoin in JPY (BTC/JPY) is currently trading at 9.24 million yen –  surpassing its previous all-time high of 7.79 million yen set in November 2021.

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