Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC at a Precipice, Drops Below $3,500 May Trigger a Spiral

2019-1-21 17:41

Latest Bitcoin (BTC) News

Crypto is an emerging field and after gaining widespread attention thanks to the +2,000 percent plus rallies of late 2017, it attracted investors, traders, speculators—and regulators. Regulators may be out and about their business, executing their mandate but their eyes are fixed on centralized exchanges. Just like continuous maintenance of the blockchain draw value, exchanges are vital and play a pivotal role not only in creating liquidity but are on-ramps that link traditional markets with crypto.

Read: Crypto Users Ponder if Ongoing Govt. Shutdown Will Prolong the Current Bitcoin Bear Market?

The lack of clear regulation may be an obstacle at the moment but that’s about to change. Aside from Japan and other ASEAN countries keen on embracing blockchain and their application, the US State of Wyoming is on the right path. In Q4 2018, they announced a partnership with BitPay allowing businesses to pay tax via BTC with the crypto processing firm, BitPay, handling the BTC—USD conversion.

Also Read: Bitcoin Network Registers Over $3 Trillion Dollars in BTC Transaction Volume During 2018

Now, a Senator from the same state has put forth a proposal that would see BTC classified as money meaning it would be free from interest payment. No doubt, this is the step in the right direction. Add that to Japan’s FSA exemplary oversight of exchanges guaranteeing proper security as well as risk management practices, other countries or state may follow suit benefiting the ecosystem.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Meanwhile, BTC is down but steady in the last week. All the same, the four percent drop was unexpected and dents buyer’s optimism. Anyhow, after 80 percent plus drops in 2018, prices appear to be bottoming and although yesterday’s losses could be deflating, there is a likelihood that buyers may build up momentum as prices race towards $3,800 and even above $4,100 complementing Dec 17 gains.

From candlestick arrangement, this is a long shot because effort versus result perspective means the inability of traders to propel prices above Jan 10 highs in the process recouping losses put sellers at the forefront. It has been made worse by the lack of conviction from market participants. From Jan 11—20, average volumes were low—at around 14k, and we cannot compare that with 35k of Jan 14. All the same, buyers may have a chance if there is a reversal from above these spot rates. This will confirm bulls of Dec 17 and more importantly the double bar bull reversal pattern evident in the weekly chart.

If there are reversal of yesterday’s losses and prices rally past $3,800 or the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of Dec 2018 high-low, BTC may retest $4,100 or $4,500 by end of the week. While drops below $3,500 or the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level could feed bears aiming at $3,200.

Current Market Outlook:

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View – BitFinex

Disclaimer: Opinions are those of the author. Do your Research.

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