2018-10-10 00:30 |
Chart for BTC/USD (1W)
Bitcoin (BTC) is finally out of the woods. The above weekly chart for BTC/USD shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a weekly candle above the historical downtrend line. This is the first time since January 2018 that Bitcoin (BTC) has breached this resistance line and formed a candle above it. The 10 Week EMA is about to cross above the 21 Week EMA which will confirm the beginning of a new cycle. As the new cycle is confirmed, Bitcoin (BTC) will immediately rise above $7,000. Industry leaders like Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Arthur Hayes of Bitmex have very optimistic targets for Bitcoin (BTC) by year end. Tom Lee expects Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $25,000 by end of 2018. Arthur Hayes on the other hand expects the price to hit $50,000 by year end.
Both of these predictions seem way too optimistic from current levels. It will appear the same way to most people who have been waiting to see a trend reversal in Bitcoin (BTC) for the last eight months. However, if we consider these predictions more objectively, we will see that they are not unreasonable at all. In the past, we have seen Bitcoin (BTC) making most of its gains in a matter of weeks. We still have three months ahead of us. A lot can happen in this the next 80 days. In an interesting turn of events, Yale University recently got involved into cryptocurrencies as an investment. These universities have billions of dollars in funding and can be considered institutional investors. Even if a small fraction of these funds end up in the cryptocurrency market, it will make a huge impact. Let’s examine why.
Chart for BTC/USD (4H)
Trading volume has dried up on exchanges. Please note that institutions waiting to get involved were not waiting for the perfect bottom this entire time like amateur investors. They were busy buying but they bought mostly on OTC (over the counter) markets. There are reports of multi billion dollars in Bitcoin (BTC) trading that occur on OTC markets even when volume dries up on exchanges. People, who were accumulating for the long term, did not mind buying even when Bitcoin (BTC) was falling below $20,000. Most of them are institutions or high net individuals who would otherwise be unable to fill their orders. Currently, as Bitcoin (BTC) price has stabilized and is likely to rise, the number of sellers on OTC markets is starting to rapidly decrease, because they can see Bitcoin (BTC) going up in the near future.
So, institutions that are looking to buy will soon run out of sellers on OTC market. Then, they will have to buy on exchanges. Looking at exchanges, there is a very small volume of sell orders between $7,000 and $20,000. This means that most of these orders will soon be filled as institutions buy, soon pushing the price of Bitcoin (BTC) above $20,000. Currently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to budge because most of the buying has occurred on OTC markets. Even if a fraction of the trading on OTC market shifts to exchanges, which it will, we will see a tremendous spike in price. That will put us close to levels of $25,000 or higher. When that happens, Bitcoin (BTC) will move up from there and retrace to $20,000 only during its next correction. This is why we may never see Bitcoin (BTC) at $6,000 again.
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