2020-8-24 18:16 |
As we enter into the last week of August, it’s time for bitcoin derivatives to expire.
This week, 62,000 BTC worth about $730 million of Bitcoin options will be expiring on Friday.
June’s $1 billion bitcoin derivatives expiry was a non-event for the price of the digital asset. Now, it’s to be seen how the market will fare this time.
62k #bitcoin options expiring this week pic.twitter.com/htxH9vk1yg
— skew (@skewdotcom) August 24, 2020
As we reported, open interest on bitcoin options has grown six-fold since the beginning of 2020 to $2 billion, last seen around July expiry.
Given that about a third of these will expire, it isn't expected to have much of an impact on the market.
Deribit, which accounts for 80% of the bitcoin options market, has 46.6k BTC to be expired this week, but about 60% of them are out for the money and have no intrinsic value, as such reducing the selling pressure further.
When it comes to bitcoin futures, which will also be expiring this week, the open interest on them climbed to its all-time high of $5 billion last week.
The point worth noting is that CME data shows “institutional investors are short-term bearish.”
The number of leveraged funds longs has fallen 10.6% from their all-time high in the last two weeks, while the number of leveraged funds shorts rose 10.3%.
“This trend, reflecting net shorts, shows a lack of institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s short-term price growth,” notes OKEx.
We could see unwinds in the next COT report as futures basis almost halved over the last week pic.twitter.com/Nn2cqiqxoR
— skew (@skewdotcom) August 24, 2020
The Bitcoin futures market is actually in contango with 3-months futures contracts at a 9% annualized premium.
However, the Bitcoin futures price at CME currently is at the same level as the spot market, unlike last week, which has been trading at over 1% premium.
This week has another major event, bigger than the expiration of the derivatives happening. The macroeconomic event coming this Thursday is Federal Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech about the inflation target at the Jackson Hole Forum, which is expected to affect bitcoin, gold, and the stock markets.
While BTC started on a positive note today to reach $11,800, the market sentiment remains of “extreme greed,” which has been ruling the market through this month.
The yellow metal also spiked 1.5% only to move back down to $1,940; meanwhile, the US Dollar index is uptrending.
S&P 500, on the other hand, is enjoying the gains by opening higher and continuing to make new highs — currently up over 1% from the ATH hit in February. Nasdaq also hit a new peak, a whopping 16.5% higher than pre-March crash levels.
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