2025-12-5 09:36 |
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) will not be forced into selling its vast Bitcoin holdings even if its share price drops below the firm’s net asset value, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
Addressing rising concerns surrounding the Bitcoin accumulator’s finances, Hougan argued that investors predicting imminent liquidation are “just flat wrong.”
In comments included in his expanded blog post, Hougan said fears about Strategy’s stability have been misinformed, despite heightened scrutiny following CEO Phong Le’s suggestion last week that a Bitcoin sale could occur as a “last resort” if the company’s market value fell below the value of its Bitcoin stash.
“This is akin to two years of Bitcoin ETF inflows,” Hougan said of concerns about a forced sale of Strategy’s approximately $60 billion Bitcoin pile.
“But with no debt due until 2027 and enough cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future, I just don’t see it happening.”
No near-term debt pressure, Hougan saysHougan underscored that Strategy’s balance sheet remains stable, noting that the company acquired its Bitcoin at an average price of $74,436 — leaving it roughly 24% in the green even with Bitcoin trading around $92,000.
This price cushion, combined with what he described as manageable financing obligations, means forced selling is not in play.
“MSTR has two relevant obligations on its debt,” Hougan wrote. “It needs to pay about $800 million a year in interest, and it needs to convert or roll over specific debt instruments as they come due.”
He added that Strategy holds $1.4 billion in cash, sufficient to cover interest payments “for a year and a half.”
The first major debt maturity — about $1 billion — does not arrive until February 2027. “Chump change,” Hougan said, given the scale of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves.
He also dismissed the idea that internal pressure could compel Bitcoin liquidation, pointing to chairman Michael Saylor’s control of 42% of voting shares and “steadfast conviction” in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
MSCI Index risk considered manageablePart of the anxiety surrounding Strategy stems from a potential removal from MSCI’s investable indexes, which could trigger sales worth as much as $2.8 billion, according to JPMorgan.
Hougan acknowledged the risk but argued that index-related flows are typically less disruptive than feared.
“My experience from watching index additions and deletions over the years is that the effect is typically smaller than you think and priced in well ahead of time,” he said.
When Strategy was added to the Nasdaq-100 last December, funds tracking the index bought $2.1 billion worth of shares, and “its price barely moved.”
Hougan estimated at least a 75% chance that Strategy will be excluded, but said any impact is likely already reflected in the stock’s 24.69% decline over the past month.
No “doom loop” in sightHougan rejected the narrative that Strategy is entering a self-reinforcing collapse driven by index deletion, stock-price weakness, and forced Bitcoin selling.
“There’s no plausible near-term mechanism that would force it to sell its Bitcoin. It’s not going to happen,” he wrote.
While acknowledging broader industry challenges, Hougan argued that Strategy’s value ultimately rests on its execution rather than index membership or temporary market sentiment.
“Conviction in bitcoin has a cost,” he said. “But over the long term, that patience can be rewarded.”
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