фото показано с : bitcoinmagazine.com

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise, has issued a bold prediction: hundreds of companies will buy Bitcoin as a treasury asset over the next 12 to 18 months. The shift, which Hougan describes as an "overlooked megatrend," has the potential to significantly influence Bitcoin's market trajectory.

MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has become synonymous with corporate Bitcoin adoption. Though ranked only 220th globally by market capitalization, the company’s influence on the Bitcoin market is disproportionate. In 2024 alone, MicroStrategy acquired 257,000 BTC—exceeding the total Bitcoin mined that year (218,829 BTC).

The company’s ambitions show no signs of slowing. It recently announced plans to raise $42 billion for additional Bitcoin purchases, equivalent to 2.6 years’ worth of Bitcoin’s annual production at current rates.

MicroStrategy’s actions are just the tip of the iceberg. According to Hougan, 70 publicly traded companies already hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. This list includes not only crypto-native firms like Coinbase and Marathon Digital but also mainstream giants like Tesla, Block, and Mercado Libre. Together, these firms—excluding MicroStrategy—own 141,302 BTC.

Private companies are also significant players. SpaceX, Block.one, and others collectively hold at least 368,043 BTC, based on data from BitcoinTreasuries.com. Hougan highlights that MicroStrategy’s share of the corporate Bitcoin market is already less than 50% and is likely to decline further as adoption grows.

What happens when larger companies, like Meta, which is currently considering a shareholder suggestion to add bitcoin to its balance sheet—20x the size of MicroStrategy start to emulate MicroStrategy’s strategy?

Two major barriers have historically constrained corporate adoption of Bitcoin: reputational risk and unfavorable accounting rules. Both have shifted dramatically in recent months:

Until recently, companies faced significant hurdles in adopting Bitcoin. CEOs and boards were concerned about shareholder lawsuits, regulatory scrutiny, and negative media coverage. However, as Bitcoin gains acceptance at institutional and governmental levels, these fears are dissipating. Post-election, Bitcoin has seen growing bipartisan support in Washington, making it increasingly "commonplace—and even popular—to own Bitcoin," according to Hougan.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) introduced a new guideline, ASU 2023-08, that fundamentally changes how Bitcoin is accounted for. Previously, companies were required to mark Bitcoin as an intangible asset, forcing them to write down its value during price declines but preventing upward adjustments when prices rose.

Under the new rule, Bitcoin can now be marked to market, allowing companies to recognize profits as its price appreciates. This change removes a significant disincentive and is expected to drive exponential growth in corporate Bitcoin holdings.

Corporate motivations for holding Bitcoin mirror those of individual investors. Hougan outlines several reasons:

Hougan asserts that the motivations behind corporate adoption matter less than the magnitude of demand. "You just need to look at the numbers," he writes. "Where does all this demand look like it’s going? And what would that mean for the market?"

Hougan’s memo paints a bullish picture of Bitcoin’s future. If hundreds of companies follow MicroStrategy’s lead, the cumulative demand could drive Bitcoin’s price significantly higher in the coming year. With 70 companies already on board under less favorable conditions, the stage is set for an explosion in adoption.

This trend not only highlights Bitcoin’s evolving role as a treasury asset but also underscores its growing acceptance as a mainstream financial instrument. For mature investors, the implications are clear: the next 18 months could mark a pivotal period in Bitcoin’s journey from speculative asset to institutional cornerstone.

With reputational risks fading, accounting rules evolving, and demand accelerating, Bitcoin’s integration into corporate treasuries appears inevitable. Hougan’s analysis invites investors to consider the broader implications:

If corporations truly embrace Bitcoin at scale, what could that mean for the market’s future? For savvy investors, the answer might lie in acting sooner rather than later.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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