2026-2-25 00:00 |
Everything Money’s Paul with 379K subscribers opened his video with a confession: picking only one stock isn’t how he invests. He builds a basket of great businesses, then buys when price drops far below what he thinks the business is worth.
But for the sake of the video, he still did it. He narrowed the list down and landed on one name he says the market has beaten up way too much: Adobe.
Why Paul Keeps Coming Back to AdobePaul’s whole angle is “price vs. value.” Not hype. Not a story. Not vibes. He says Adobe checks the boxes of a real business: steady revenue, huge margins, strong cash flow, and a product suite that’s baked into how professionals work.
The stock, though, has gotten crushed. Paul says the drop is tied to the “AI fear trade,” where investors started acting like tools like Sora and other generative models will erase the need for pro design software overnight.
He doesn’t buy that. He points out that companies don’t rip out their creative workflows in a weekend. Teams, agencies, and enterprises are built around Adobe’s ecosystem. That stickiness matters.
“Adobe Missed AI”… or Did It?
Paul’s argument is that the market is treating Adobe like it fell asleep and got passed. He says it didn’t.
He highlights Adobe’s AI push through Firefly and the way the company has been weaving AI into its existing products instead of trying to reinvent everything from scratch.
His point is that Adobe isn’t trying to win an AI beauty contest. It’s trying to keep its seat inside professional workflows. And that’s the difference.
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The Numbers That Made Him Say “Okay, This Is Getting Stupid”Paul gets excited when a great business gets priced like it’s dying. He says Adobe is down roughly 41% from its 52-week high, and even further from its all-time high around $700. At the time he’s referencing, the stock was trading near $258.
Then he starts stacking up the parts he likes: Adobe generated massive operating cash flow (he points to over $10B in 2025), with gross margins close to 90%.
That’s the kind of business that can absorb competition, price pressure, and changing trends without falling apart overnight.
He also likes that free cash flow has been running stronger than net income, which he frames as a sign the company is still a “cash machine,” even if the market feels shaky.
And one line from his breakdown tells you where his head is: if a company with elite margins and real cash flow gets cut in half because people are scared, that’s when he starts paying attention.
His Investing Rule: Price Matters More Than the StoryPaul gives a simple mental test. Take a stock price and add a zero. If someone still says “buy,” they’re not investing anymore, they’re married to the story. That’s his way of saying price always matters, even for the best companies on earth.
He also repeats another point that value investors live by: a stock doesn’t care what price someone paid. If the value is still there, a dip is not automatically “bad.” If the value isn’t there, a rally doesn’t make it “good.”
However, Paul runs Adobe through his stock analyzer with conservative assumptions and a margin of safety. He lowers growth expectations on purpose, then applies a future valuation multiple that he thinks fits a premium business.
After the model runs, he says the stock looks priced below what his assumptions suggest it’s worth, enough that it gets his attention and he’s adding to his position.
He also admits the obvious: he can be wrong. The point, in his view, is buying quality businesses when fear creates a gap between price and value.
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Meanwhile, Everything Money’s Paul isn’t pitching Adobe as a “guaranteed winner.” He’s pitching it as the cleanest setup on his list right now: a real business with real cash flow, trading like it’s on life support.
His bet is simple: the market got spooked, pushed the stock too far down, and the gap between price and value is now wide enough to matter.
If 2026 is about buying strong companies when they’re hated, Paul says Adobe is the one he’d pick if forced to choose only one.
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The post This Expert Says He’d Buy Only One Stock in 2026 – Here’s Why appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
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