The price of Ripple’s XRP is trading at the midline of a long-term pattern. Whether it breaks down or bounces will determine the future trend.

The XRP price has fallen since the channel’s resistance line rejected it on March 29. A breakdown from the channel’s midline will put the entire bullish structure and previous upward movement at risk.

The XRP price has traded inside a long-term ascending parallel channel since June 2022. An ascending parallel channel is a pattern that involves the price bouncing between two parallel resistance and support lines.

This pattern is typically considered bearish, suggesting that a breakdown is the most likely outcome.

The channel’s resistance line rejected the price on March 29 (red icon), initiating the current downward movement. Shortly afterward, it fell below the $0.53 horizontal area and validated it as resistance (red icons).

Both are considered bearish signs and often lead to downward movements. Currently, the digital asset trades just above the channel’s midline. Whether it bounces or breaks down can determine the future trend.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a crucial level. When evaluating market conditions, traders use the RSI as a momentum indicator to determine whether a market is overbought or oversold and whether to accumulate or sell an asset.

If the RSI reading is above 50 and the trend is upward, bulls still have an advantage, but if the reading is below 50, the opposite is true. The indicator is right at the 50 line and at a bullish divergence trendline (green line). So, whether the indicator bounces or breaks down can determine the future trend.

The short-term wave count from the daily time frame still provides an opportunity for a bullish future outlook. To determine the direction of a trend, technical analysts use the Elliott Wave theory, which involves studying recurring long-term price patterns and investor psychology.

The wave count suggests that the XRP price has just begun the fifth and final wave of an upward movement. If correct, the target with the highest likelihood of being reached is between $0.67 and $0.72.

The 1.61 Fib extension of wave four (black) and the length of waves one and three combined (white) provide this target.

Fibonacci retracement levels operate on the principle that after a significant price change in one direction, the price will retrace or revisit a previous price level, partially, before resuming in its original direction.

Additionally, they can be employed to identify the highest point of future upward movements.

However, a decrease below the wave one high (red line) of $0.430 will invalidate this bullish XRP price forecast. If that occurs, an XRP price drop to $0.360 will likely be the future outlook.

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