Quick Take On the news of today, job report, and unemployment data, the market is now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bps rate hike. This would take the federal funds rate above 5%. The market now expects a 25bps hike in May, a pause in June, and a 25bps cut in July. However, we have a couple of inflation reports, with CPI on April 12 and PCE on April 28. So we expect the data to change as the month rolls on. Probabilities: (Source: CME) Probabilities: (Source: CME)

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