2018-10-11 18:30 |
Chart for ETH/USD (4H)
Ethereum (ETH) investors have nothing to worry about. The recent decline in Ethereum (ETH) sure was frightful. It is alarming to see the price of an asset decline by more than 10% in a single day. However, considering the ascending channel that Ethereum (ETH) has been trading in, this had to happen someday. As the above 4H chart for ETH/USD shows, Ethereum (ETH) had to fall to the bottom of the ascending channel. If anything, Bitcoin (BTC) has done it a favor by accelerating the decline. Ethereum (ETH) has bounced strongly off the bottom of the ascending channel. RSI has entered oversold territory on the 4H chart and is due for a reversal.
Ethereum (ETH) like many altcoins has had an extensive correction for the past eight months. Investors are almost expecting a trend reversal at this point. However, the recent manipulation in the market seems to have scared off a lot of new investors. All the positive news regarding Ethereum (ETH) Futures, Baakt and new Dapps and ICOs seem to not affect the price at all. In the bull market, even a small exchange listing or partnership would send the price soaring. That is not to say though that negative events did not hurt the price. However, at this point the situation is totally different. Positive news does not impact the price at all whereas negative events, no matter how ridiculous or false it may be, deal a serious blow to the price. This might be a strong sign that we are due for a trend reversal.
Chart for ETH/USD (1D)
Markets do not care about emotions. If anything, they act contrary to emotions. This is why most contrarians in the crypto market are of the view that the trend is about to reverse as most people have become very bearish. When some analysts called for a reversal back in July, I said that in order for the trend to reverse, the positive sentiment has to be completely obliterated. This time we have seen positive sentiment crushed badly. However, it could get a lot worse than this. That being said, there is little to no chance of another correction or a bear market. The price could trade sideways until it reverses from here or it may attempt to break market structure so as to scare off any final weak hands.
As explained in some of our previous analyses, there are some important considerations here. The price cannot fall below the 21 Month EMA, even if it has to climb back later. For if that happens, we will enter a bear market. It is not in the interest of anyone at this point to let the price enter a bear market that might last another 8 months or longer. So, the price does not have a lot of room for further downside. In my opinion, this was the final wave of capitulation. So far, there is no cause for alarm. However, if Ethereum (ETH) breaks market structure, it is highly likely to enter a bear market.
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