Bitcoin price has been struggling to gain momentum after falling below the $80,000 mark, as selling pressure has continued to intensify.

Bitcoin has remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent institutional outflows pushed traders into a defensive stance across the crypto market.

According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to nearly $76,500 on Monday, wiping out most of the gains recorded earlier this month. 

The decline followed reports that US and Israeli officials had recently discussed possible military action against Iran, a development that weakened sentiment across global risk markets.

Unlike traditional financial markets, Bitcoin trades continuously through weekends and overnight sessions, making it one of the first major assets investors sell during sudden periods of uncertainty. 

As panic selling accelerated, leveraged traders rapidly reduced exposure across derivatives markets, adding further downside pressure to BTC price action.

From its local high of $82,800 on May 6, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 7%. 

Market structure has also weakened after BTC failed to reclaim the 200-day moving averages near $82,000 and closed below the true market mean alongside the short-term holder realized price near $78,000.

Fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant showed that short-term holders moved more than 10,000 BTC to Binance at a loss on Monday. 

Those transfers occurred while Bitcoin traded near $76,900, approximately 2% below the group’s average acquisition price of $78,440.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Tah said in a QuickTake post published Tuesday that the activity pointed to “short-term holder stress, forced selling, or capitulation from weaker hands during a correction.”

At the same time, Glassnode data showed that more than 7.8 million BTC are currently being held at a loss. 

According to the analytics firm, the market may need to absorb that underwater supply before a sustained recovery can develop.

Away from on-chain activity, institutional demand has also weakened considerably in recent sessions.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have now recorded net outflows in six of the last eight trading days. 

On Monday alone, those products posted $648.6 million in withdrawals, their largest single-day outflow since Jan. 29.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices following escalating Middle East tensions have revived inflation concerns across financial markets, reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates anytime soon.

Attention has now turned toward the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee minutes alongside scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Christopher Waller. 

Investors are also monitoring Thursday’s US initial jobless claims report, as a stronger labor market could reinforce the Fed’s higher for longer rate policy stance, which has historically pressured speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the ongoing weakness, several analysts still believe Bitcoin could attempt a short-term rebound before deciding its next direction.

Market analyst Ted Pillows said BTC recently tapped the $75,000 to $76,000 support zone and may now attempt to fill the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures gap near $79,200.

Historically, Bitcoin has often revisited unfilled CME gaps during volatile trading periods.

Another analyst, Ali Martinez, identified immediate resistance near $78,258, followed by a larger barrier around $84,569. 

According to Martinez, key downside support currently sits near $75,733 and $66,898.

When gauging the current price action on the BTC/USD 1-day chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below all major exponential moving averages, a structure that has kept bearish pressure intact over the past several sessions.

The 20-day EMA currently sits near $78,551 while the 50-day EMA stands around $76,714.

Above them, the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are positioned near $76,849 and $81,764, respectively. 

After briefly reclaiming the short-term moving averages earlier this month, BTC failed to hold above them and quickly rolled over, a sign that buyers have struggled to maintain momentum once the price approached the $80,000 region again.

Recent candles also show Bitcoin printing consecutive lower highs after the rejection near $82,800, reinforcing the idea that sellers remain active on rallies. 

At the same time, weak recovery attempts over the last few days suggest dip buyers have become more cautious amid deteriorating macro conditions and ETF outflows.

Volume activity on the chart adds to that picture.

Earlier selloffs triggered noticeably larger red volume spikes compared to recent recovery candles, indicating stronger conviction from sellers during the decline phase. 

Although panic selling has cooled slightly over the last two sessions, the market has yet to produce a decisive bullish reversal signal on the daily timeframe.

Meanwhile, the On Balance Volume indicator continues trending lower despite Bitcoin’s rebound attempts during April and early May. 

Weak OBV structure generally points to fading spot accumulation, which aligns with the recent slowdown in institutional demand highlighted by the ETF outflow data.

Still, some short-term recovery conditions remain on the table if Bitcoin moves to fill the CME gap near $79,200. 

A daily close back above the $78,000 to $79,000 region may strengthen the case for a temporary rebound toward the psychological $80,000 level, especially if broader market sentiment stabilises after this week’s macro events.

Ali Martinez’s resistance zone near $78,258 also lines up closely with the short-term moving averages currently sitting overhead, making that region particularly important for bulls.

Failure to reclaim it could keep BTC trapped beneath its recent breakdown structure.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin would likely need to recover the 200-day EMA near $81,700 before traders begin treating the latest move as a meaningful trend recovery rather than a short-lived bounce. 

Until then, rallies toward $79,000 to $80,000 may continue facing selling pressure from traders looking to exit losing positions.

On the downside, support around $75,700 remains critical in the short term.

A breakdown below that area could expose Bitcoin to another liquidity sweep toward $70,000.

The post Bitcoin price outlook: Can BTC recover $80,000 after selloff? appeared first on Invezz

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