2019-2-8 18:56 |
Bitcoin BTC/USD
From yesterday’s low at around $3435 the price of Bitcoin has increased by 1.86% measured to the level on which it is currently being traded at $3498.
Click above to see the full-size imageLooking at the hourly chart we can see that the price increased impulsively to the upside which could mean that we are seeing the start of the expected reversal. My Elliott Wave count has been readjusted to include the current upward move as the 4th wave, but the 5 wave impulse could have ended on the $3434 low level.
Zooming into the 5-min chart you can see that my count excludes the current move to the upside in an assumption that the downward impulse has ended. If that is true and it looks likely, then we are seeing the start of the first impulsive move to the upside which is the expected recovery – the expected Intermediate Y wave (orange) out of the WXY correction to the upside.
Click above to see the full-size imageWe can see that indeed the price went impulsively to the upside in a five-wave manner and has been stopped out at the falling wedge resistance level. The price heading for a retracement now that the impulsive move has ended and from that retracement, we are going to see which scenario is going to be validated.
If the price finds support around the 0.236 Fibonacci level and starts impulsively moving upwards again and breaks out from the falling wedge resistance and goes past the horizontal resistance at $3511 which is the prior range support, then that would be a strong indication that the Minor WXYXZ correction inside the falling wedge ended and that we are seeing the start of the Intermediate Y wave.
If the price, however, goes back below the 0.236 Fibonacci level than the price is likely heading for a one more low before the end of the Minor WXYXZ correction.
Zooming out back to the hourly chart you can see that I have projected the ghost bars from the last time the price of Bitcoin increased impulsively which is the Intermediate W wave that ended on 24th of December.
Since then the price of Bitcoin has been correcting in a falling wedge in which the wave structure formed a WXYXZ correction which is the X wave of the Intermediate count and now that it has ended or will end soon, we are going to see another impulsive move similar in momentum that is likely going to go up to the bold black line which is the most significant resistance line and potentially further up to the horizontal resistance level at $3994.4 which exactly matches the projected ghost bars.
Click above to see the full-size imageThe azure area labeled with an rectangle is looking similar to the current one and the considering that the ghost bars are from the ahead increase but only adjusted to fit the current context this scenario looks very likely.
Zooming out on to the 4-hour chart you can see the significance of the bold black line to which the price is expected to increase. It was the baseline support from the start of the bear market and was broken to the downside on the 21st of November last year when the price of Bitcoin reached $3214 at its lowest point.
Click above to see the full-size imageSince that low which is the lowest the price has been since the start of the bear market we have seen the start of this Intermediate WXY correction which was a retest of the prior support for resistance, and this would be the final retest before further downside for the price of Bitcoin.
Ethereum ETH/USDFrom yesterday’s low at $105.46 the price of Ethereum has increased today by 5.1% to the level on which it is now at $110.8.
Click above to see the full-size imageLooking at the hourly chart you can see that the price has been stopped out at the horizontal resistance level from the current range at $111.19 and with wicks from both sides indicating a struggle.
If we are seeing the start of the Intermediate wave Y than this current increase would be the third wave of the five wave impulse so in that case, I would be expecting to see a further increase above the horizontal resistance, retracement back to the horizontal level for support, followed by further increase – like projected with the ghost bars.
Zooming out to the 4-hour chart you can also see like in the case of Bitcoin the ghost bar projection from the last impulsive move which is expected in resemblance this time as well to develop.
Click above to see the full-size imageThe price is on its current horizontal resistance much like it was the last time in the previous context labeled as the first rectangle area on the left, and is similar in pattern to the current structure in a way that there was a five wave impulse move to the downside out of which the last 5th wave ended on the vicinity of the 3rd wave’s ending point forming a double bottom and establishing support before starting to increase impulsively.
If we are seeing the start of another increase like that we might see the price of Ethereum increase up to $152 are where the 0.786 Fibonacci level is.
Litecoin LTC/USDFrom yesterday’s low at $33.4 the price of Litecoin has increased by 16.27% and is currently being traded at $38.84.
Click above to see the full-size imageLooking at the hourly chart you can see that the Minor X wave has most likely ended and we are now seeing the beginning of an impulsive move to the upside which would be the Y wave and the continuation of the Intermediate Y wave.
If this is true and then the potential increase could be even to 36% from the current levels as by projecting the Y wave as the length of the W wave from the presumed X wave ending point we come up with a target of around $54.
Zooming out to the daily chart you can see that would perfectly fit the completion of the U shape and since there is a strong resistance zone once at the projected ending point of the Y wave a retracement will occur which would lead to the formation of a descending channel which would in the combination with the U shape – a cup and handle pattern.
Click above to see the full-size imageAs that would be the second wave X from a higher degree count I believe that if this scenario plays out as outlined we are going to see a breakout from the handle on the downside and further trend continuation as the final corrective wave Z should start developing.
Crypto Market Update: Click above to see the full-size iimageDisclaimer: Cryptocurrency market analysis isn't meant to be trading advice. Trade at your own risk. DYOR.
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